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Book Review: The Upside of Down Thomas Homer-Dixon is what used to be called ‘a thinker,’ meaning that he deals with big ideas and he does so comfortably and with a certain grace. With his book The Upside of Down, Homer-Dixon, who holds the Pierre Trudeau Chair in Peace and Conflict Studies at the University of Toronto, has established himself as one of Canada's leading intellectuals. The overarching theme of this book is "tectonic stresses" – stresses that are accumulating deep underneath the surface of today's global order. Five are singled out: • the increasing scarcity of conventional oil supplies • global economic instability and widening income gaps • the differences in population growth rates between rich and poor nations • increasing dangers to land, water, forests, and fisheries • climate change If this wasn't enough to worry about, we are introduced to two "multipliers" which combine with the five stresses to make global breakdown more likely and more severe. The first multiplier is the rising speed and global connectivity of our activities, technologies and societies, and the second is the escalating power of small groups to destroy things and people. The interplay or convergence between stresses and multipliers will, he believes, result in a lethal mixture – what he calls “synchronous failure” – which overloads our societies' ability to cope. Readers should be cautioned at the outset: you will not find elaborate explorations into each stress and multiplier, and his discussions of each are certainly not beyond questioning. I, for one, did not find his treatment of economic globalization all that insightful. It was clouded by his recognition that the numbers of people lifted up from global poverty has been most impressive during the past two decades while, at the same time, darkly projecting dire consequences resulting from widening global income disparities. He did not – at least to my satisfaction – manage to square the circle on this and there are, I am sure, a number of other areas where the analyses can be questioned by knowledgeable readers. But, I suspect I protest too much, as the added value of this book is considerable. Homer-Dixon has read widely and thought deeply about the gravest threats to our globe. His extensive treatment of how Rome did not collapse in a day but rather fell prey to environmental stresses, most particularly its increasing lack of access to high quality energy – is quite illuminating and provides an interesting historical reference point. Nor is Homer-Dixon a doom and gloom Malthusian. Collapse of the global system is by no means inevitable, and there is much we can do to mitigate the oncoming problems. There will, he emphasizes, undoubtedly be less severe types of breakdown but even they will open up opportunities for creative and bold reforms of our societies. The book contains no discussion of how close we are to the so-called tipping point but he is clear as day in his argument that there is no time to lose. Nor is he an optimist: he finds many, including those in positions of power, are in denial concerning the unsustainability of the world's present path. It is a cardinal sin of the book reviewer to wish that the author had written a different book and I certainly won't go there. Still, I cannot but wish Homer-Dixon had gone into more detail and presented us with some type of roadmap to the types of breakdowns we are headed for and the types and timing of actions that are needed. He would, I am sure, have much of value to say in this regard beyond his general call for deep reforms and renewal of institutions, social relations, technologies and entrenched habits of behavior – along with, eventually, “some kind of democratic world government.” These are the best hope for a prosperous and humane future. If I feel the book left me hanging somewhat, it is largely because I know Homer-Dixon had more to say. So I will await his next book anxiously and respect the one at hand for what it is – a brilliant conceptualization of the crisis at hand and how we all are going to be tested by the coming changes to our worlds. Surely that by itself is a major accomplishment. The Upside of Down |
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